CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON BALI MYNA (LEUCOPSAR ROTHSCHILDI) DURING THE LAST DECADE (CASE STUDY: WEST BALI NATIONAL PARK)

Abstract

Climate change is affecting birds worldwide. Such impacts have always been prevailing due to rising temperature or unpredictable rainfall that might be too abundant or little and which in turn bring about dire consequences upon the lives of the endemic bird known as Bali Myna (leucopsar rothschildi). In this paper we propose a framework analysis describing the possible patterns of change in the distribution of Bali Myna (leucopsar rothschildi) population based on climate parameters such as temperature, rainfall and humidity in hope to better have an improved quantitative methodology meant to identify and describe these patterns. This study uses a descriptive qualitative method recoursing to focus upon sites observation and a deep interviews to be carried out while using SPSS 16 in order to know the variables correlation in hope to determine the plausible significance between them that allow us to analyse the effects of environmental variables on bird species in this study. We tested the proposed methodology using data from the West Bali National Park and the existing data of climate variables over the last decade where climate variables are considered to be significant factors influencing the lives of Bali Myna (leucopsar rothschildi). This study discovers that increases in temperature and precipitation each year have adversely affected the number of Bali Myna (leucopsar rothschildi) population indicating that the bird’s survival capacity depends largely much on temperature. Besides, it has been perceived that Bali Myna is very reproductive in rainy season but its fluctuations whether high or low impacts them as well. The distribution mapping show a decline of population in 2006 while an increase was perceived during the last five year period of 2011-2015. Besides, over the same period, a slight increase of 0,4°C in mean temperature was noticed, precisely in Cekik our research site where Bali Myna (leucopsar rothschildi) are.